Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

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Next January, the new U.S. President will be confronted with the longest list of severe challenges any president has faced in decades. Prioritizing among them will be even more important than usual. In its new series, "Foreign Policy for the Next President", the Carnegie Endowment’s experts endeavor to do just that. They separate good ideas from dead ends and go beyond widely agreed goals to describe how to achieve them.

Sunset for the Two-State Solution?

In the second brief in this new series, Nathan Brown argues that the Bush administration is using its final months to try to gain agreement on a two-state solution to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict—but much of the framework supporting a two-state solution has collapsed. In January 2009, a new American administration will face a series of bleak choices, of which a two-state solution remains the most attractive. It may still be possible to revive a two-state solution, but it will require the emergence of a more viable and unified Palestinian leadership. Rather than pretending that an agreement is possible now, it would be far better if U.S. efforts in the remainder of this calendar year began to address the underlying problems.

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Pakistan’s New Tack on Fighting Terror

Pakistan’s new coalition government is on the brink of collapse after nine ministers from the party of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif resigned this week. If the government survives, Ashley Tellis argues in Yale Global, the United States should support its efforts to talk with extremist groups while continuing to use force when necessary.

Democratic Transition:
Pakistan’s Civilian Government

Nuclear Transparency:
Risks of Nuclear Expansion

Terrorism:
Pakistan’s Record on Terrorism

Iran in Iraq: Causes and Consequences

Recent reports suggest that groups inside Iran are training and arming Shiite Iraqi militants fighting against U.S. forces. Karim Sadjadpour explains on the Diane Rehm Show that the Iranian leadership views U.S. efforts to spread secular democracy throughout the Middle East as an "existential threat."

Iranian Politics:
Reading Khamenei
Ahmadinejad in Iraq
Iran's Influence in Iraq

Medvedev’s Moment?

Dmitry Medvedev was inaugurated as the Russian Federation’s third president on May 7. Serious questions about Medvedev’s ability to lead persist as Vladimir Putin is widely expected to shift the power-base of the Russian leadership to his new post as prime minister. Carnegie experts in Washington and Moscow examine the implications and issues surrounding the Russian presidential election.

Medvedev's Role:
No Softer Than Putin

Russian Foreign Policy:
After Russia's Presidential Election

Russian Foreign Policy:
The Meaning of Medvedev

Internal Politics:
A Regional Shift in Moscow

Additional Resource:
Russian Presidential Election

Arab Reform Bulletin

The May issue of the Arab Reform Bulletin features:
• Why Kuwaiti politics will keep boiling even after May 17 elections
• How blogs, Facebook, and You Tube are changing Egyptian politics
• Why the benefits of economic reform are not trickling down in Jordan and Egypt
• What Syria's new economic reform laws mean
• How educational reform initiatives in Gulf States differ

Plus developments from across the Middle East, debates in the Arab media, new publications, and much more.

Afghanistan: UN Special Representative Addresses Priorities

The international community’s efforts to rebuild Afghanistan must be directed by the Afghan government, warned Ambassador Kai Eide, the new UN Special Representative in Afghanistan and head of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan, at a special event at Carnegie. Unless international organizations seek to build the capabilities of the Afghan government and to convey the impression that Kabul is able to provide services and stability to the country, the reconstruction effort will fail, he added.

Taliban:
Afghanistan's Regional Impact

Security:
Suicide Attacks in Afghanistan

Region:
Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations in the Post-9/11 Era

China-Taiwan Talks Signal Progress

Recent meetings in Hainan, China between Chinese President Hu Jintao and Vice President-elect Vincent Siew of Taiwan provide an initial glimpse into how relations between the two countries may change as Siew and President-elect Ma Ying-jeou prepare to take office in Taipei on May 20. While both sides remain constrained by domestic political concerns from pursuing an agenda beyond improved economic cooperation, there is momentum inside Taiwan for greater openness across the Taiwan Strait. Carnegie experts provide analysis to help explain the evolving relationship between China, Taiwan, and the U.S.

U.S. Relations: Assessing U.S. Taiwan Policy

Political Progress: Taiwan Poll Offers Hope for Peace

Development: Behind the 'Modern' China

Commentary

Lebanese army soldiers patrol a street in Beirut

Hizbollah Attempts a Coup d’État

Lebanon’s prolonged political crisis erupted last week in the worst violence since the end of its civil war in 1990. Paul Salem writes from Beirut that Hizbollah’s political goals for the violence are to gain a larger share of power in a new unity government.

Additional Resources:
The Violence in Lebanon

China's Next-Generation Nationalists

The heated protests following the Beijing Olympic torch relay through the United States and Europe sparked passionate counter-demonstrations among young nationalist Chinese at home and abroad. Joshua Kurlantzick argues in the Los Angeles Times that urban, middle-class Chinese youth are often more nationalist than older party leaders, creating the possibility that “If China ever were to become a truly free political system, it might actually become more, not less, aggressive.”

Beijing Olympics:
China's Olympian Challenge

Iraq and Afghanistan: The Real Cost

Democrats in the U.S. House plan to pass legislation funding the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan into 2009. Carnegie recently hosted an event with Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz who estimates the total cost for these wars will exceed $3 trillion. Long-term expenditures — including healthcare and benefits for veterans — have been hidden from U.S. taxpayers and will continue to add up in the years ahead.

U.S. Performance:
Lessons and Principles
Effectiveness of the "Surge"

Iraqi Politics:
The Iraq Stalemate

Additional Resources:
The War in Iraq

Kuwaiti Prime Minister Sheikh Nasser Mohammed al-A

Kuwait's Democratic Crisis

Kuwait's parliamentary election on May 17 will more likely result in continued political stalemate than much needed political and economic reforms, argues Nathan J. Brown. Kuwait's looming tensions between the ruling family and parliament may have serious implications the for broader Middle East as "other countries in the region are coming to see Kuwait as a negative model of what democracy can result in."

Dangerous Milestone: U.S. and China's Climate Change Failure

With China now the world's leading emitter of carbon dioxide, Director of the Carnegie Energy and Climate Program, William Chandler, argues that Beijing and Washington must make a coordinated and concerted effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. As the world's largest polluters, they have a responsibility to reduce energy consumption by regulatory and pricing policies that recognize the reality of global warming. (Video available.)

Environmental Policy:
Breaking the U.S.–China Suicide Pact
Financing Energy Efficiency in China

The New Global Arms Race

Global military expenditures have increased nearly 40 percent in the last decade, fueled by the threat of terrorism, scarcity of natural resources, and new prominence of authoritarian regimes like Russia and China. Carnegie experts offer commentary and analysis for understanding why countries are arming themselves and whether their newly acquired weapons may help escalate conflicts in the future.

China:
Rearming the World
China and Africa

Russia:
A New Russia-U.S. Arms Race on the Horizon?

Autocracy:
The End of the End of History

Egypt's Deteriorating Politics

The Egyptian government’s crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood in advance of the controversial April 8 local elections underscores the present backward slide and broad deterioration in Egyptian politics. In Egypt’s Local Elections Farce: Causes and Consequences, Amr Hamzawy and Mohammed Herzallah further argue that the activist's last minute decision to boycott the elections signals to the government that with "sufficient political persecution and repression, the authorities can count on the Brotherhood to take itself voluntarily out the political equation."

Egyptian Politics:
Egypt's Political Future

Inside the Global Power Elite

In his ground breaking new book, Superclass, David Rothkopf contends that an often unregulated global community of 6,000 individuals governs not only the world's business and finance, but also politics and culture. Rothkopf lifts the veil that has protected this little-known society to reveal the most powerful people on the planet whose daily decisions impact the lives of millions across borders and whose ideas shape the history of our times. (See CSPAN coverage of the book event, check your local listings.)

Superclass Indepth:
What Power Looks Like (Newsweek)
Who Is The Superclass?(Newsweek)
Superclass Has Global Influence (Miami Herald)
Rothkopf Discusses Superclass

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