Beijing Olympics

China’s Olympic Moment

The Beijing Olympics mark China’s emergence as a global leader, but present risks that could mar its reputation. To explain those risks and their potential impact on the Chinese government, Carnegie hosted an event with Victor Cha, director of Asian studies at Georgetown University, and Carnegie’s Minxin Pei and Douglas Paal. Risks discussed include logistical organization, pollution, security, and political protests.

Olympic Preview:: China's Missing Civil Society; China's Hopes for the Beijing Games; China's Positive Popular Opinion

Turkey

Turkey: Aftermath of the
Political Crisis

Turkey narrowly avoided an unprecedented constitutional crisis last month when its Constitutional Court refrained from banning the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). Henri Barkey analyzes the court’s decision, outlines the history of the AKP, and assesses the impact of the crisis on Turkey’s political future.

Turkish Politics:: Turkey’s Judicial Coup D’etat; The Escalating Conflict Between Turkey and Iraq; Turkish Ruling Party Wins National Elections

WTO

One Cheer for Global Trade Talks

Despite the collapse of the recent Doha trade talks in Geneva, Sandra Polaski argues that the global food crisis is creating the basis for longer term progress on a new agricultural trade regime. Key differences over agriculture as well as manufacturing and services trade seemingly stymied a final deal, but the progress on farm talks bodes well for an eventual pact that better reflects the needs of developing countries and the poor.

Policy Outlook:: Rising Food Prices, Poverty, and the Doha Round

Iraq

Allawi: Iraqi Reconciliation

A series of devastating suicide bombings in Iraq recently underscored how fragile the improved security situation is. Former Prime Minister of Iraq, Dr. Ayad Allawi, speaking at Carnegie, stressed the importance of transforming the surge’s military gains into political reconciliation, including reaching an agreement on Iraqi refugees and the disarmament of militias.

More on Reconciliation:: Iraq Refugee Crisis; Achieving Long-Term Stability in Iraq

Arab Diplomacy

Filling the Diplomatic Vacuum
in the Arab World

Arab countries are undertaking diplomatic initiatives that clearly contradict U.S. policy, because they no longer trust the U.S. capacity to contend with escalating regional crises. Marina Ottaway and Mohammed Herzallah assess these initiatives in The New Arab Diplomacy: Not With the U.S. and Not Against the U.S., and conclude that even Arab countries traditionally aligned with the United States are no longer willing to follow Washington’s lead on policies toward Iran, Lebanon, or Hamas.

Arab Diplomatic Initiatives:: Hope in the Levant; Regional Arab Diplomacy (Al Ahram Weekly)

China's Economy

China: World’s Largest Economy by 2035

China’s economy will surpass the U.S. by 2035 and be twice its size by midcentury, that was the key finding of Albert Keidel's new report, China’s Economic Rise—Fact and Fiction. Keidel shows that China's rapid growth is driven by domestic demand—not exports—and will sustain high single-digit growth rates well into this century. China’s ascendency as the preeminent world commercial influence requires U.S. leaders to reassess a broad array of economic and military policies.

More Analysis

Next January, the new U.S. President will be confronted with the longest list of severe challenges any president has faced in decades. Prioritizing among them will be even more important than usual. In its new series, "Foreign Policy for the Next President", the Carnegie Endowment’s experts endeavor to do just that. They separate good ideas from dead ends and go beyond widely agreed goals to describe how to achieve them.

In this series...

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Establishing Middle East Regional Order

Following September 11th and the U.S. invasion of Iraq, the structures and power balances that defined regional Arab relations for more than fifty years are in ruins. Though there have been many attempts by the international community to impose order in the Middle East, Paul Salem argues that Arab states must themselves overcome divisive ideologies, prioritize common interests, and develop a cooperative political and security architecture if a new regional order is to come to fruition.

Regional Relations:Filling the Diplomatic Vacuum in the Arab World
Democracy Promotion in the Middle East
The New Middle East

Resolving Palestinian Election Dispute

Fatah and Hamas controlled government agencies must cooperate before a Palestinian presidental election can take place. Nathan Brown offers an analysis of Palestinian law and the core disagreements between the Palestinian factions that cast new doubt on President Mahmud Abbas’s political future.

Israel-Palestine Conflict:
Sunset for the Two-State Solution?
Road Out of Gaza
The New Middle East

Medvedev’s Foreign Policy

Dmitry Medvedev’s decision to veto a recent UN Security Council resolution for sanctions against Zimbabwe was a clear signal that he has not deviated from Vladimir Putin’s foreign policy. Dmitri Trenin explains in the Moscow Times that, like Putin, Medvedev seeks to “replace U.S. hegemony with an oligarchy of the new global powers.”

Russia’s Global Posture:
Is Russia's foreign policy a tool for modernization?
Does Medvedev Make a Difference?

Commentary

Redefining the Islamist Party Movement

Morocco’s leading Islamist party—the Party for Justice and Development Party (PJD)—is facing growing disillusionment among its supporters after a shift toward secular reforms did not lead to greater national political influence. Amr Hamzawy describes that the PJD is struggling to define a balance between the pragmatic demands of political participation and accusations that they are compromising religious commitments for political advancement.

Islamist Reform:
The Islamist Conundrum

U.S.-India Nuclear Deal

India's UPA government's comfortable margin of victory on a confidence vote in the Lok Sabha enables the ruling coalition to push ahead with the Indo-US civilian nuclear deal. The deal would lift the U.S. ban on nuclear trade with India and allow it to assist India’s civilian nuclear program. Ashley Tellis discussed the details of the deal on NPR’s Morning Edition but noted that it is unlikely to make India a closer U.S. ally.

A Secure Nuclear Power Expansion

A worldwide revival of nuclear energy appears to be looming, now is the time to ensure that future nuclear expansion is as safe and secure as possible, testified Pierre Goldschmidt, before the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Terrorism, Nonproliferation, and Trade.

US Joins EU-Iran Talks

Undersecretary of State William Burns met with EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana and Iran’s nuclear envoy, Saeed Jalili, in Geneva last month—a move which could open the door to dialogue between the US and Iran on the nuclear issue. On NPR’s Weekend Edition, George Perkovich argued that the administration’s policy of threatening Iran with military force is not an effective strategy for moving it toward greater nuclear transparency.

Inside Iran:
Iran's Failed Leadership
Iran's Missle Tests
EU-US Posture Toward Iran
Iran Sanctions

Supporting Taiwan

Despite President Bush’s 2001 commitment to supply Taiwan with F-16s for its self defense, the administration recently froze the final part of the arms deal. Ashley Tellis argues in the Wall Street Journal that Washington’s concern about offending Beijing is misplaced: the deal should move forward, not only to support a democratic ally whose leader is committed to improving cross-straits relations, but also as a pragmatic step toward balancing China’s military build-up.

U.S.-Taiwan Relations:
Assessing U.S.-Taiwan Policy
The Chinese Military and Taiwan's Security

Beijing Olympics

China’s Olympic Moment

Turkey

Turkey: Aftermath of the
Political Crisis

WTO

One Cheer for Global Trade Talks

Iraq

Allawi: Iraqi Reconciliation

Arab Diplomacy

Filling the Diplomatic Vacuum
in the Arab World

China's Economy

China: World’s Largest Economy by 2035

More Analysis

Asia—Shaping the Future

Is a League of Democracies a Good Idea?

Sunset for the Two-State Solution?

Breaking the Suicide Pact: U.S.–China Cooperation on Climate Change

Commentary

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