More Analysis

Next January, the new U.S. President will be confronted with the longest list of severe challenges any president has faced in decades. Prioritizing among them will be even more important than usual. In its new series, "Foreign Policy for the Next President", the Carnegie Endowment’s experts endeavor to do just that. They separate good ideas from dead ends and go beyond widely agreed goals to describe how to achieve them.

Is a League of Democracies
a Good Idea?

In the third brief in this new series, Thomas Carothers argues that although the proposed “League of Democracies” reflects a useful recognition of the need to rebuild U.S. credibility through greater multilateralism, it rests on a false assumption that democracies share sufficient common interests to work effectively together on a wide range of global issues. Rather than restoring the credibility of U.S. foreign policy and placing democracy promotion efforts back on track, such a league could aggravate global sensitivities over the U.S. global security agenda. Carothers outlines steps the next U.S. president should take to bolster democracy promotion and foreign policy in general.

More on this series ►
Kim Jong-il North Korea's Nuclear Program
Last month, the U.S. administration released details of North Korea’s involvement in the construction of an alleged nuclear reactor in Syria. Robert Gallucci, the ambassador responsible for the 1994 Agreed Framework between North Korea and the United States, and Carl Ford, a former Assistant Secretary of State for Intelligence and Research, examine North Korea’s nuclear capabilities, Pyongyang’s connections and cooperation with Syria, and future steps towards verifying the disablement of North Korean nuclear facilities.
Shiite Militia Iran in Iraq: Causes and Consequences
Recent reports suggest that groups inside Iran are training and arming Shiite Iraqi militants fighting against U.S. forces. Karim Sadjadpour explains on the Diane Rehm Show that the Iranian leadership views U.S. efforts to spread secular democracy throughout the Middle East as an "existential threat." 

Iranian Politics:
Reading Khamenei 
Ahmadinejad in Iraq 
Iran's Influence in Iraq
Arab Reform Bulletin Arab Reform Bulletin
The May issue of the Arab Reform Bulletin features:
• Why Kuwaiti politics will keep boiling even after May 17 elections
• How blogs, Facebook, and You Tube are changing Egyptian politics
• Why the benefits of economic reform are not trickling down in Jordan and Egypt
• What Syria's new economic reform laws mean
• How educational reform initiatives in Gulf States differ

Plus developments from across the Middle East, debates in the Arab media, new publications, and much more.
Food Aid in Afghanistan Afghanistan: UN Special Representative Addresses Priorities
The international community’s efforts to rebuild Afghanistan must be directed by the Afghan government, warned Ambassador Kai Eide, the new UN Special Representative in Afghanistan and head of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan, at a special event at Carnegie. Unless international organizations seek to build the capabilities of the Afghan government and to convey the impression that Kabul is able to provide services and stability to the country, the reconstruction effort will fail, he added.

Taliban:
Afghanistan's Regional Impact

Security:
Suicide Attacks in Afghanistan

Region:
Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations in the Post-9/11 Era
Taiwan’s newly elected president Mr. Ma Ying-Jeou Taiwan’s New Ma Administration
The March 22 electoral victory of Ma Ying-jeou has the potential to usher in a new era after nearly six decades of tense relations between Taiwan and China. In advance of Ma’s inauguration on May 22, Carnegie experts provide analysis to help explain the evolving relationship between China, Taiwan, and the United States.

The New President:
Policy Implications for China and the U.S.

U.S. Relations:
Assessing U.S. Taiwan Policy

Political Progess:
Taiwan Poll Offers Hope for Peace

Commentary

Lebanese army soldiers patrol a street in Beirut Hizbollah Attempts a Coup d’État
Lebanon’s prolonged political crisis erupted last week in the worst violence since the end of its civil war in 1990. Paul Salem writes from Beirut that Hizbollah’s political goals for the violence are to gain a larger share of power in a new unity government.

Additional Resources:
The Violence in Lebanon
Kuwaiti Prime Minister Sheikh Nasser Mohammed al-A Kuwait's Democratic Crisis
Kuwait's parliamentary election on May 17 will more likely result in continued political stalemate than much needed political and economic reforms, argues Nathan J. Brown. Kuwait's looming tensions between the ruling family and parliament may have serious implications the for broader Middle East as "other countries in the region are coming to see Kuwait as a negative model of what democracy can result in."
Pakistan’s New Tack on Fighting Terror
Pakistan’s new coalition government is on the brink of collapse after nine ministers from the party of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif resigned this week. If the government survives, Ashley Tellis argues in Yale Global, the United States should support its efforts to talk with extremist groups while continuing to use force when necessary.

Democratic Transition:
Pakistan’s Civilian Government

Nuclear Transparency:
Risks of Nuclear Expansion

Terrorism:
Pakistan’s Record on Terrorism
U.S. Soldier Iraq and Afghanistan: The Real Cost
Democrats in the U.S. House plan to pass legislation funding the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan into 2009. Carnegie recently hosted an event with Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz who estimates the total cost for these wars will exceed $3 trillion. Long-term expenditures — including healthcare and benefits for veterans — have been hidden from U.S. taxpayers and will continue to add up in the years ahead.

U.S. Performance:
Lessons and Principles
Effectiveness of the "Surge"

Iraqi Politics:
The Iraq Stalemate

Additional Resources:
The War in Iraq
Food Aid in Afghanistan Dangerous Milestone: U.S. and China's Climate Change Failure
With China now the world's leading emitter of carbon dioxide, Director of the Carnegie Energy and Climate Program, William Chandler, argues that Beijing and Washington must make a coordinated and concerted effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. As the world's largest polluters, they have a responsibility to reduce energy consumption by regulatory and pricing policies that recognize the reality of global warming. (Video available.)

Environmental Policy:
Breaking the U.S.–China Suicide Pact
Financing Energy Efficiency in China
Muslim Brotherhood Protest Egypt's Deteriorating Politics
The Egyptian government’s crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood in advance of the controversial April 8 local elections underscores the present backward slide and broad deterioration in Egyptian politics. In Egypt’s Local Elections Farce: Causes and Consequences, Amr Hamzawy and Mohammed Herzallah further argue that the activist's last minute decision to boycott the elections signals to the government that with "sufficient political persecution and repression, the authorities can count on the Brotherhood to take itself voluntarily out the political equation."

Egyptian Politics:
Egypt's Political Future
Superclass Cover Inside the Global Power Elite
In his ground breaking new book, Superclass, David Rothkopf contends that an often unregulated global community of 6,000 individuals governs not only the world's business and finance, but also politics and culture. Rothkopf lifts the veil that has protected this little-known society to reveal the most powerful people on the planet whose daily decisions impact the lives of millions across borders and whose ideas shape the history of our times. (See CSPAN coverage of the book event, check your local listings.)

Superclass Indepth:
What Power Looks Like (Newsweek)
Who Is The Superclass?(Newsweek)
Superclass Has Global Influence (Miami Herald)
Rothkopf Discusses Superclass
Carnegie Programs

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