China's Economy

China: World’s Largest Economy

China’s economy will surpass the U.S. by 2035 and be twice as large as the U.S. by midcentury. Albert Keidel argues in his new report, China’s Economic Rise—Fact and Fiction, that China’s rapid growth today is driven by domestic demand—not exports—and will sustain high single-digit growth rates well into this century. China’s ascendency as the preeminent world commercial influence requires U.S. leaders to reassess a broad array of economic and military policies.

G-8 Summit

G-8: Engaging Russia

This week’s G-8 summit in Hokkaido, Japan revealed continued disagreement between Russia and the West over economic and security interests. Sam Greene argues in Forbes that the West can successfully engage Russia’s new president, Dmitry Medvedev, by helping Russia diversify its economy and tame inflation with better integration into international institutions like the WTO.

Summit Resources: Food Prices; Energy and Climate; Development and Trade

North Korea

North Korea Hands Over
Nuclear Details

Last Thursday North Korea handed China long awaited details of its nuclear program as part of the six-party effort offering North Korea diplomatic and economic incentives to eventually disarm. In briefings following the announcement, Carnegie experts offered analysis of this development, noting that while it is the first of several hurdles to be overcome before North Korea may fully reintegrate into the international community, it represents the greatest understanding of the North's plutonium program in fourteen years.

Confronting Iran

Iran: The Military Option

Israel's military exercise last month, which was interpreted by some as a rehearsal for a potential bombing raid on Iran's nuclear facilities, has further escalated the tension between the two nations. On NPR’s Weekend Edition, George Perkovich argues that threatening Iran with military force is not an effective strategy for moving it toward greater nuclear transparency. He noted that any Israeli military strike will be seen in the Middle East as a proxy attack by the United States.

Sanctions on Iran:: Karim Sadjadpour on BBC World

Gaza

Renewed Violence in Gaza

The Palestinian rocket attack last week on southern Israel jeopardizes its new truce with Hamas. In The Road Out of Gaza, Nathan Brown argues that substantive progress in Gaza can be achieved with an international strategy focused on restoring key institutions, encouraging a Fatah–Hamas agreement, and emphasizing regional diplomacy.

Peace Process:: Sunset for the Two-State Solution?; The New Middle East; Inside Palestine

Food Prices

Arab Food Crisis: The Right Response

As food prices continue to rise across the Middle East, Arab governments have tempered public anger by increasing wages and subsidies. But their approach is not sustainable without raising taxes. In Food Price Crisis in the Arab Countries: Short Term Responses to a Lasting Challenge Ibrahim Saif emphasizes long-term initiatives that revise agricultural policies, expand social safety nets, and curb excessive energy consumption.

Global Food Crisis:: Improving Long Term Global Food Security

More Analysis

Next January, the new U.S. President will be confronted with the longest list of severe challenges any president has faced in decades. Prioritizing among them will be even more important than usual. In its new series, "Foreign Policy for the Next President", the Carnegie Endowment’s experts endeavor to do just that. They separate good ideas from dead ends and go beyond widely agreed goals to describe how to achieve them.

A Clear Strategic Vision for Asia

The next U.S. administration needs a clear strategic vision for Asia befitting the region’s status as the new global “center of gravity.” In Asia—Shaping The Future, Douglas H. Paal presents key steps the United States should take to advance its interests in “rising Asia.” These include: Signal to China where constructive cooperation will lead; appoint a high-level advocate for Asia; develop new multilateral security and economic arrangements with China and India, including discussion of G8 membership; avoid coalitions based on common values or democracy.

Experts Discuss Rising Asia.

More on this series ►

Moderate Islamists at the Crossroads

Moderate Islamist groups formed political parties throughout the Middle East with the hope of realizing religious reforms and wresting political power away from ruling elites. Amr Hamzawy shows that they have not been successful on these fronts, and now face “growing scepticism surrounding political participation that could shake the commitment of moderate Islamists to peaceful change.”

Creating Effective Free Trade

In, EU and U.S. Free Trade Agreements in the Middle East and North Africa, Riad al Khouri argues that the West increasingly uses free trade agreements with countries in the region as an economic policy tool with political goals. These agreements have strengthened negative perceptions of “western-led globalization” because they benefit unpopular elites and cause serious short term economic disruptions for workers.

Historic China-Taiwan Talks

The start of formal talks between Taiwan and China is further evidence that Ma Ying-jeou's administration may usher in a new era between in cross-strait relations after nearly six decades of tense posturing. Carnegie experts provide analysis to help explain the evolving relationship between China, Taiwan, and the United States.

The New President:
Policy Implications for China and the U.S.

U.S. Relations:
Assessing U.S. Taiwan Policy

Political Progess:
Taiwan Poll Offers Hope for Peace

Commentary

Achieving Long-Term Stability in Iraq

Discussions between the United States and Iraq over a long-term bilateral security agreement began recently, but the two sides have yet to agree on how much control Iraq will have over the American military. Iraq legislators argued at a recent Carnegie briefing that negotiations on the agreement should only occur after national reconciliation between Iraq's political parties.

Afghanistan's Future

From Carnegie Europe - The recent Afghanistan donors' conference in Paris granted the local United Nations mission broader responsibility for coordination and the Afghan government a greater role in reconstruction efforts. But the question remains whether the outcome of the conference will make a difference in the face of the daunting challenges posed by corruption, illegal drugs and rampant poverty. Carnegie Europe convened a day of discussions in Paris, between Afghan leaders, top NATO representatives and other international experts, on the priorities for Afghanistan over the next five years and how the roles of NATO and the EU should evolve. The discussion covered important issues such as military operations, reconstruction plans, regional dynamics and the crippling narcotics problem.

France's Leadership Moment

France assumes the presidency of the European Union in the wake of Ireland's vote against the Lisbon Treaty, which would have streamlined the organization's decision making process. Robert Kagan writes in the Washington Post that the treaty’s failure is due to a lack of leadership within the EU and a growing sentiment throughout Europe rejecting the ambition to become a superpower.

Europe in the World:
The End of the End of History
Europe and the U.S.

Effective Democracy Promotion

U.S. democracy promotion efforts in the Middle East should focus on realistic political reform goals that correspond both to regional realities and the limited degree of actual U.S. influence. In her new report, Democracy Promotion in the Middle East: Restoring Credibility, Marina Ottaway identifies the most pressing issue facing Arab countries as the need for political systems that can contend with evolving socio-economic realities and provide open participation to political opposition.